Olympics: Men's 400m Preview

Men’s 400m

Heats 8:05 PM Friday, August 12^th

Semi-Final 7:30 PM Saturday, August 13^th

Final 9:00 PM Sunday, August 14^th

World Record: Michael Johnson (USA) 43.18, 1999

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Jeremy Wariner (USA) 43.45, 2007

Olympic Record: Michael Johnson (USA) 43.44, 1996

A Standard: 45.40

2012 Olympic Medalists

Kirani James (Grenada) 43.94, Luguelin Santos (Dominican Republic) 44.46, Lalonde Gordon (Trinidad and Tobago) 44.52

2015 World Championship Medalists

Wayde Van Niekerk (South Africa) 43.48, LaShawn Merritt (USA) 43.65, Kirani James (Grenada) 43.78

2016 World Leaders

LaShawn Merritt (USA) 43.97, Kirani James (Grenada) 44.08, Wayde Van Niekerk (South Africa) 44.12

Team USA

Lashawn Merritt, 30 (43.65/43.97), Gil Roberts, 27 (44.53/44.67), David Verburg, 25 (44.41/44.82)

In 2012, Grenada’s Kirani James who emerged as a breakthrough star in the 400, winning the Olympic Gold and breaking into the 43 second club. Before Kirani broke through, that 43 second club was owned and operated by Americans. In other words, Kirani was the first man outside the USA to break 44. Now, 4 years later, the list has ballooned to 5: Rusheen McDonald (Jamaica), Youseef Al-Masrahi (KSA), Isaac Makwala (Botswana), Wayde Van Niekerk (South Africa) and the aforementioned Kirani. The 2012 Olympics marked a changing of the guard in the Men’s 400 when no Americans finished in the medals. There won’t be another USA sweep (like there was in 2008) any time soon.

But US fans still have at least one super star to root for in the quarter. That would be 2008 Olympic Gold Medalist Lashawn Merritt who is the fastest man in the world this year with the globe’s only sub 44 clocking. Merritt has also cracked a sub 22 second 200m to place himself among the world leaders in that event. He’s also the silver medalist from last year’s World Championships where, at 29, he ran a personal best 43.65 at the lightening quick Beijing track. There he defeated rival Kirani James who finished with a bronze despite running 43.78.

Although James was the first rival to the USA throne, it appears Wayde Van Niekerk is version 2.0. The South African dropped an unreal 43.48 to win the 2015 World Title, catapulting himself up the world’s all time list. He’s run 44.12 for 400 this season and has shown fantastic form in his victories to date. He’s run sub 10, sub 20, and 31.03 for 300 and that 43.48 within the last 14 months.

Also in the mix will be Olympic silver medalist Luguelin Santos who has run 44.11. The contingents from the Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago will also surely have medal contenders including 2012 bronze medalist Lalonde Gordon or newcomer Machel Cedenio (44.34 season best).

The USA’s Gil Roberts and David Verburg will hope to break through and make their first global final. It’s going to be an uphill battle, but both have season bests in the 44s (44.67 for Roberts, 44.82 for Verburg). Verburg has been on a few US teams already, mainly gaining experience through the 4x4 relay. He finished 4^th in the 2014 World Indoor Final and then made it to the semi-finals in Beijing a year ago (and was 3^rd in his heat). It’s not crazy to imagine Verburg as a finalist if things break right for him, but he will need a mark in the low 44s. Roberts made his only outdoor individual championship performance back in 2009 at Berlin, but failed to qualify from the prelims. Looking at his first round heat, he’s got decent odds at advancing to semis.

I know Bolt runs around the same time, but I think this 400 final will be a better race. It’s going to be awesome to watch Merritt, Wayde and Kirani go head to head once again, perhaps with a newcomer emerging as a medal threat outside of the big three. I’m a big Kirani fan, but Wayde and especially Merritt seem to be operating on another plane. I’ve got Lashawn winning this and, if the track is as fast as it was in Beijing, don’t be surprised if he is within earshot of the world record.

Merritt, 2. Van Niekerk, 3. James

Olympics: Women's Heptathlon

Women’s Heptathlon

Event One: 100m 8:35 AM Friday, August 12^th

Event Two: High Jump 9:50 AM Friday, August 12^th

Event Three: Shot Put 7:35 PM Friday, August 12^th

Event Four: 200m 9:04 PM Friday, August 12^th

Event Five: Long Jump 10:45 AM Saturday, August 13^th

Event Six (Section A): Javelin Throw 7:00 PM Saturday, August 13^th

Event Six (Section B): Javelin Throw 8:15 PM Saturday, August 13^th

Event Seven: 800m 9:53 PM Saturday, August 13^th

World Record: Jackie Joyner-Kersee (USA) 7291 Points, 1988

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Carolina Kluft (Sweden) 7032 Points, 2007

Olympic Record: Jackie Joyner-Kersee (USA) 7291 Points, 1988

A Standard: 6200

2012 Olympic Medalists

Jessica Ennis-Hill (Great Britain) 6955, Lilli Schwarzkopf (Germany) 6649, Tatyana Chernova (Russia) 6628

2015 World Championship Medalists

Jessica Ennis-Hill (Great Britain) 6669, Brianne Theisen Eaton (Canada) 6554, Laura Ikaniece-Admidna (Latvia) 6516

2016 World Leaders

Brianne Theisen Eaton (Canada) 6765, Jessica Ennis-Hill (Great Britain) 6733, Anouk Vetter (Netherlands) 6626

Team USA

Barbara Nwaba, 27 (6500/6494) Heather Miller-Koch, 29 (6423/6423) Kendell Williams, 21 (6402/6402)

In case you haven’t picked up on this, I’m a distance runner and my main focus is on those races. I don’t really understand the multis all that much. But I think they are the coolest events around and I will be doing everything I can to follow all 17 multi events in Rio (10 for the Dec, 7 for the Hep).

The queen of the heptathlon has been Jessica Ennis-Hill of Great Britain. She is the defending world and Olympic champion, setting a British record four years ago with a fantastic 6955 (top 5 all time). She was able to win the title a year ago, even after time away for her first child. But in recent years, while Hill has continued to dominate, Brianne Theisen Eaton has relentlessly pursued the throne. Eaton (wife of decathlon world record holder Ashton) was 2^nd in 2013 and 2015 at worlds. Indoors she was a silver medalist in the Pentathlon at the 2014 championships. Then, in Portland, it looked like she would end with silver once again before a fantastic final 800 got her the gold. Perhaps that was the breakthrough she needed to finally conquer the rest of the world in the Hep.

Among the other contenders are world bronze medalist Laura Ikaniece-Admidna of Latvia and Anouk Vetter of the Netherlands. Both woman have gotten scores above 6600 within the qualifying window. The top sleeper pick (if you can call her that) is Katrina Johnson-Thompson of Great Britain. First, she has a fantastic name. Second, she has a PR of 6682 in 2014 and would have been a medal contender for sure in Beijing but ended up with a dread no mark in the Long Jump (easily one of her best events, she’s jumped a world class 6.92m). Johnson-Thompson is just 23 years old.

The USA squad each has produced over 6400 points in the Hep this season, including collegiate stand out Kendell Williams of Georgia. Barbara Nwaba is the most experienced of the US contingent. She produced her personal best last year at the US championships but suffered a spill in Beijing for Worlds that cost her valuable points and pushed her way down the rankings. She will hope to avenge that this season and maybe break into the top 5-10 spots. Miller-Koch was a surprise to me, busting onto the squad at the Olympic Trials with a big PR. She will need to find a way to recapture that magic to contend for a top spot in this event. For Williams, this could be a great learning opportunity. She is one of the future stars of this event for team USA.

My picks all have two last names. Maybe that’s the secret. Does that mean Heather Miller-Koch is going to be our best USA competitor?

1.      Theisen Eaton, 2. Ennis-Hill, 3. Johnson-Thompson

Olympics: Women's 100m Preview

Women’s 100m

Preliminary Round 10:55 AM Friday, August 12^th

Heats 9:40 PM Friday, August 12^th

Semi-Finals 8:00 PM Saturday, August 13^th

Finals 9:35 PM Saturday, August 13^th

World Record: Florence Griffith-Joyner (USA) 10.49, 1988

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Carmelita Jeter (USA) 10.64, 2009

Olympic Record: Florence Griffith-Joyner (USA) 10.62, 1988

A Standard: 11.32

2012 Olympic Medalists

Shelly-Ann Fraser Pryce (Jamaica) 10.75, Carmelita Jeter (USA) 10.78, Veronica Cambell Brown (Jamaica) 10.81

2015 World Championship Medalists

Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (Jamaica) 10.76, Dafne Schippers (Netherlands) 10.81, Tori Bowi (USA) 10.86

2016 World Leaders

Elain Thompson (Jamaica) 10.70, English Gardner (USA) 10.74, T-Murielle Ahoure (Ivory Coast), Tianna Bartoletta (USA), Tori Bowie (USA) 10.78

Team USA

English Gardner, 24 (10.74/10.74), Tianna Bartoletta, 30 (10.78/10.78), Tori Bowie, 25 (10.78/10.78)

There’s been plenty of talk about Usain Bolt and his pursuit of a third straight Olympic Gold, but don’t overlook Shelly-Ann Fraser Pryce. SAFP is also looking for a third straight gold and she would, technically, grab it before gold if she wins Saturday night’s final. But she will have a lot of ground to make up on the competition. She has only run 10.93 this season and she couldn’t pull out the win in most recent Diamond League appearance either. That win belonged to Marie Josse Ta Lou of the Ivory Coast who ran under 11 seconds for the first time in London. She’s part of an intriguing duo for the Ivory Coast that includes Murielle Ahoure, who has a season best of 10.78 this year and has run under 11 seconds each of the past 5 seasons.

You also have Dafne Schippers of the Netherlands in the hunt for a medal. She has run 10.83 this season and is the defending world silver medalist in this event. She’s actually better at the 200 (she ran a blistering 21.63 last year) but ran 10.81 for 100 last season will only get stronger during the rounds. The experienced Veronica Campbell-Brown is on the performance list as well. She holds a best of 10.76 but that time came in 2011. She’s now 34 years old, but she still managed to run a 10.83 (tied for 6^th in the world this season) in Florida against Ahoure.

But those fast ladies will all be chasing four of the fastest women of all time. Elaine Thompson clocked an amazing 10.70 this season in Kingston on July 1^st. That’s tied for 5^th all time (and one of the women ahead of her is Marion Jones). She ran 10.84 last season as well, but competed in only the 200 for Jamaica at the World Championships (where she ran 21.66 for 2^nd, that’s a faster PR than Allyson Felix). She clearly has that extra strength to run her best marks at the rounds.

Then there are the US women: English Gardner, Tianna Bartoletta and Tori Bowie. At the trials, they each ran under 10.80 in the 100m, joining an elite group of USA women all time. Gardner is the 4^th fastest US woman 100m runner in history and Bartoletta and Bowie were both right behind her. Tianna is the defending world champion in the long jump (she will contest that event in Rio as well) and Bowie is the defending bronze medalist from worlds. So neither of them are slouches in the talent department either.

Gardner was surprisingly bounced in the semis last year, but she was fourth in Moscow at the 2013 championships. She won the Prefontaine DL meet in 10.81 and the Oregon grad looks incredibly sharp and motivated to leave with a medal for the first time. Bowie has also been a beast on the international circuit in 2016. She’s US champ at 200, so she’s got the strength, but she also ran a 10.80 in May at Doha to win the DL there (over Dafne Schippers). Bartoletta tends to focus more on the Long Jump, but she was the 4^th place finisher in London in 2012. I doubt she’s forgot that just yet.

This one is a tough one to call. It really seems like Fraser-Pryce may not have the fitness to compete this year. But it’s hard to count out such an accomplished 100m runner going for history. The thing is, if she is even slightly off her game, there’s too much talent in this event to get a medal without your best stuff. So for that reason, I’ve left her out of my top 3. USA could potentially sweep the medals (these girls are that good), but I’m not completely sold just yet (Eugene produced some fast/long straightaway marks at the Trials). I actually like Bowie the most of the three as a medal threat although she was 3^rd at the trials.

1.      Thompson, 2. Schippers, 3. Bowie

Olympics: Men's 800m Preview

Men’s 800m

Heats 9:10 AM, Friday, August 12^th

Semi-Finals 9:05 PM Saturday, August 13^th

Finals 9:25 PM Monday, August 15^th

World Record: David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:40.91, 2012

Best Mark Past 10 Years: David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:40.91, 2012

Olympic Record: David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:40.91, 2012

A Standard: 1:46.00

2012 Olympic Medalists

David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:40.91, Nijel Amos (Botswana) 1:41.73, Tim Kitum (Kenya) 1:42.53

2015 World Championship Medalists

David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:45.84, Adam Kszczot (Poland) 1:46.08, Amel Tuka (Bosnia) 1:46.30

2016 World Leaders

David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:43.35, Donovan Brazier (USA) 1:43.55, Nicholas Kiplangat Kipkoech (Kenya) 1:43.85, [Nicholas Kiplangat Kipkoech (Kenya) 1:43.37A, Jonathan Kiprotich Kitlit (Kenya) 1:43.48A, Alfred Kipketer (Kenya) 1:43.73A]

Team USA

Clayton Murphy, 21 (1:44.76/1:44.76), Boris Berian, 23 (1:43.34/1:44.20), Charles Jock, 26 (1:44.67/1:45.48)

In the 2012 Olympics, the world witnessed perhaps the greatest 800m race in the history of the world. Each of the 8 finalists race a record for the place within the race while the world and world junior records were awarded to the top two finishers. Leading the race wire to wire and finishing with the first ever sub 1:41 800m was David Rudisha of Kenya. That mark still stands (and no one has been close quite frankly) and David holds 6 of the 8 fastest times in world history. However, Rudisha has looked much more human since his records setting run, with just one trip into the 1:42s (a 1:42.98 in 2014) and plenty of losses, even against his countrymen at the Kenyan trials.

As Rudisha fell, a few newcomers rose to prominence. First was Botswana’s Nigel Amos. He ran 1:41 chasing Dave in 2012 and then emerged as the best 800 runner in the world when he returned to health in 2014. However, after a terrific regular season in 2015, Amos was barely run out of the finals at the Beijing championships in a tactical semi-final. Then there was Amel Tuka of Bosnia who surprised everyone dropping from an also ran 1:46 type all the way to a 1:42 man who won the Monaco 800 last year. He carried that momentum and his brilliant finishing kick to a bronze medal at last year’s world championships. Pierre Bosse and Ferguson Rotich have also broken into the 1:42s since the last Olympic Games and have each made world championship finals.

However, despite the increase in challengers, when Rudisha stepped onto the track in Beijing to reclaim his title, no one could stop him. He transformed his strategy from front running pace pusher, to master tactican, winding up slowly from the front and winning a slow final in a brilliant strategic display. His winning time was just 1:45.84, quite the contrast with his 1:40.91 from 3 years earlier. That strategy helped Poland’s excellent finisher Adam Kszczot move through for the silver.

So the question becomes, which strategy will we see from Rudisha in 2016? He has run the world lead of 1:43.3 (with a slight negative split), but he’s also been bested in Stockholm (June) and Shanghai (May) plus the Kenyan Trials. Honestly, I’ve got no clue what he’s thinking. If I had to guess, I’d bet on him using the same strategy that gave him success in Beijing. In some ways it’s riskier, but leading wire to wire takes a lot of energy, especially when you aren’t easily the best in the world like Rudy was in 2012.

Representing each of the two 800 meter strategies for the United States are Clayton Murphy (the kicker) and Boris Berian (the front-runner). Berian exploded onto the scene a year ago, dipping into the 1:43s at New York’s DL and then following it with a 1:43.3 in Monaco. In the past, Berian has struggled with rounds, but we saw his true talent on display in the World Indoor Championships when he front ran his way to Gold. He’s still young and is vulnerable in the three round set up of global championships, but his runs at the US Olympic Trials were encouraging.

On the flip side, Clayton Murphy has used his phenomenal kick to beat Berian in their last two meetings, despite the fact that he didn’t have a PR in the 1:44s until the finals at USAs. He also toppled Matt Centrowitz at 1,000m recently in Houston and won the NCAA title in the 1500 with a 3:36 (perhaps his best event long term). Murphy ran at the world championships a year ago, thanks to the Symmonds controversy, and gained some valuable experience in the 800 (he made it to the semis, but was quite far from the finals). In terms of confidence and performance, Murphy is on an entirely different plane than he was a year ago, but will he be able to overcome his relatively modest personal best in a field of titans?

The final US team member is Charles Jock, who surprised many when he finished 3^rd at the US Trials. Jock has struggled mightily since making the team, but that isn’t a massive concern given the excitement and high he likely experienced after his breakthrough in Eugene. That being said, he is going to need some good fortunate to have any chance at the finals. Making the Semis and proving he belongs on this US team with a strong series of two-lappers.

The brutal truth is the 800 at major championships is incredibly unpredictable and fickle event. After the preliminary round, competitors participate in a brutal semifinal where the field is cut from 24 to 8 (top 2 in each of the three heats and next two fastest times). It will undoubtedly knock out at least one of the favorites and it will test every single athlete in the field. You need to have strength to get through the rounds, tactics to navigate the difficult structure and, of course, speed to run with the fastest in the world.

The other complicating factor is the presence of Ayanleh Souleiman (1:42/3:29) and Taoufik Makhloufi (1500m gold medalist, 1:43) in the 800. They are scheduled to run the 8 and the 15 with the 15 rounds not starting up til after the 800 is complete. It’s a doable double, but it will definitely hurt their medal chances in the 15 (see Souleiman’s finish in 2013 for example). Makloufi needed an “injury” to help him get out of the 800 rounds in London so it’s possible that these guys back out of the 800 before race day. But if they stay in the field, they are undoubtedly medal contenders with the strength to survive the rounds.

I think if the two US runners can make the finals, anything can happen, but I’m not expecting a medal here. I think it’s two big of an ask. I honestly think Berian has a better shot at getting to the podium, but Murphy has a better shot at making the final. If we can send to Americans to the Olympic final for the second straight games, I’d be amped.

To me, it’s hard to imagine Rudisha losing. He definitely could, but the guy has an impeccable championship record and has proven he can win with a variety of different styles. I’ve been a big fan of Kszscot for a while (I picked him for the medal stand a year ago) and I love his finishing ability. He can sometimes let himself get boxed in, but I’d pick him for the medal stand as well. Outside of that, I’m expecting some randomness to prevail. The Kenyans, Ferugson Rotich and Alfred Kipketer, both have excellent finishes and Kipketer has grown a lot over the past two seasons on the senior ranks. On the flip side, if it’s a fast enough race, Pierre Bosse of France might be the pick for the medal stand. He has run some phenomenal races on the circuit this year and holds a 1:42 PB from Monaco 2014.

You have Amos and Tuka lurking as sleepers, but I haven’t seen much from either of them recently. And what I haven seen hasn’t been particularly encouraging. The same goes for 2013 world champ Mo Aman of Ethiopia. But, to be fair, these guys are world class talents so don’t be surprised if they end up in the final.

1.      Rudisha, 2. Kscszot, 3. Kipketer

Olympics: Men's 100m Preview

Men’s 100m

Preliminary Round 8:30 AM Saturday, August 13^th

Heats 11:00 AM Saturday, August 13^th

Semi-Final 8:00 PM Sunday, August 14^th

Final 9:25 PM Sunday, August 14^th     

World Record: Usain Bolt (Jamaica) 9.58, 2009

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Usain Bolt (Jamaica) 9.58, 2009

Olympic Record: Usain Bolt (Jamaica) 9.63, 2012

A Standard: 10.16

2012 Olympic Medalists

Usain Bolt (Jamaica) 9.63, Yohan Blake (Jamaica) 9.75, Justin Gatlin (USA) 9.79

2015 World Championship Medalists

Usain Bolt (Jamaica) 9.79, Justin Gatlin (USA) 9.80, T-Trayvon Bromell (USA), Andre De Grasse (Canada) 9.92

2016 World Leaders

Justin Gatlin (USA) 9.80, Trayvon Bromell (USA) 9.84, Jimmy Vicaut (France) 9.86

Team USA

Just Gatlin, 34 (9.74/9.80), Trayvon Bromell, 21 (9.84/9.84), Marvin Bracy, 22 (9.93/9.94)

Last year the World Championship 100 meter final was billed as a battle of good and evil. Usain Bolt of Jamaica battled with the USA’s Justin Gatlin, a man who has served a suspension for performance enhancing drugs. Whether you agree with the narrative or not, the pressure may have gotten to Gatlin has he broke form in the final meters, allowing Bolt to defeat him in his return to Beijing, the same place where he became a global superstar in 2008.

If it wasn’t for a false start in 2011, Bolt would have won the past 6 world championships in the 100m. He’s run blistering fast times of 9.58 (2009) and 9.63 (2012) but he’s slowing down. At 29, Bolt’s 100 best this season is just 4^th in the world and his 2015 winning mark of 9.79 was the slowest of any of his winning efforts. For most, the 200 is seen as Bolt’s better event and the 100 is certainly where he appears most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Justin Gatlin, at 34 years of age, is still rolling. He has run 9.80 this year is the current world leader. He’s been utterly dominant this year (although he hasn’t faced Bolt) and he enters this final as arguably the favorite for gold among the more religious followers of the sport. He could potentially topple Bolt and end his quest for an unprecedented 3 straight Olympic golds.

Behind the top two names, Frenchmen Jimmy Vicaut is quietly putting together a monster year. He’s been under 9.9 twice this season, including his #3 mark in the world of 9.86. He doesn’t have any senior medals on his resume, but with bests of 9.86 each of the past two seasons the 24 year old is knocking on the door. The USA’s Trayvon Bromell (21) is also doing his best running in 2016. He ran 9.84 at the Olympic Trials and is a bronze medalist already on the world scene. Of course his rival, Canada’s Andre DeGrasse, split that bronze medal with him and is still lurking as a medal contender this year. The former NCAA champ at USC has freakish talent but has been quiet on the global scene in 2016. His best this year is only 9.99. But watching him at the ATL meet against Asafa Powell reminded us of his talent.

The last USA team member is Marvin Bracy. Bracy’s a sub 10 performer this season (9.94 this year) and is a phenomenal 60m sprinter (PR of 6.48). He finished 2^nd in the 2014 world championships indoors in that event. He’s not quite as strong over the full hundred, but he’s got such raw speed that when he puts it together he’s a monster. He made the 100 team out of the US so, naturally, he’s got great odds of making the final and an outside chance at the medals, but it’s going to be tough for him to jump some of the names I’ve already discussed.

Ultimately, I think Bolt will win this one. Perhaps that’s more desire than logic. It’s really hard to bet against Gatlin, but somehow Bolt always seems to find a way. 3^rd is up for grabs, but I’ll go American here, trusting in our 100 depth.

1.      Bolt, 2. Gatlin, 3. Bromell

Olympics: Men's Discus Throw Preview

Men’s Discus Throw

Qualifying Group A 8:30 AM Friday, August 12^th

Qualifying Group B 9:55 AM Friday, August 12^th

Final 9:50 AM Saturday, August 13^th

World Record: Jurgen Schult (Germany) 74.08m, 1986

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Gerd Kanter (Estonia) 73,88, 2006

Olympic Record: Virgilijus Alekna (Lithuania) 69.89m, 2004

A Standard: 65.00m

2012 Olympic Medalists

Robert Harting (Germany) 68.27, Ehsan Hadadi (Iran) 68.18, Ger Kanter (Estonia) 68.03

2015 World Championship Medalists

Piotr Malachowski (Poland) 67.40, Philip Milanov (Belgium) 66.90, Robert Urbanek (Poland) 65.18

2016 World Leaders

Piotr Malachowski (Poland) 68.15, Christoph Harting (Germany) 68.06, Robert Harting (Germany) 68.04

Team USA

Mason Finley, 26 (66.72/66.72), Travis Bailey, 24 (65.82/65.82), Andrew Evans, 25 (66.37/65.41)

Poland’s Piotr Malachowski has the top 2 throws in the world this year in the discus. He’s also the defending champion in the event from Beijing last year and holds a PB of 71.84. The Poles crushed the throws at the 2015 World Championships for both men and women and they look poised to keep the gold in house. However, the German duo of Harting and Harting will make things tricky. Christoph Harting and Robert Harting are #2 and #3 in the world for the disc this year. Robert is the defending Olympic Champion and also won the world title in 2011 and 2013. Christoph, on the other hand, is breaking onto the scene. He threw a big PR in 2015 (67.93 from 64.99) and then continued the progression in May of 2016 with a 68.06.

Philip Milanov, the silver medalist a year ago, will be a contender as well. The Belgian is currently #8 in the world, but has thrown 68.44 in a sloping ground competition. His personal best is his 67.26 from earlier this year, but he proved he has championship potential in China last summer.

Team USA will likely struggle to get on the medal stand. None of their throwers have topped 67 meters in their careers (the USA’s best discus thrower in 2016 was Penn’s Sam Mattis who threw 67.45 but didn’t qualify in Eugene). That being said, 65.18 got the bronze in China a year ago and all of these throwers have topped that this year. 26 year old Mason Finley will lead the charge after his US Championship. He’s having his best season by nearly 2 meters. Travis Bailey, the 24 year old, has also PRed this season. Evans, 25, had his best season in 2014 (66.37 throw), but is back on the right track in 2016.

In 2015, the USA sent 0 throwers to the finals. The same is true for 2013. And the London Games in 2012. So in 2016, with 3 very capable finalists on the roster, I’m hoping we can send some guys through to the top 12. I believe in this group and with a young core that includes Mattis, the future is bright for US discus throwing.

However, I don’t see any USA athletes being a factor here in the final. It should be an awesome battle between Malachowski and Robert Harting in the discus final. I lean towards Malachowski considering his last few seasons and his consistency, but Harting does have an impressive championship pedigree. The bronze is up for grabs and will probably go to a surprise competitor that I’ve overlooked. I couldn’t tell you who, however.

1.      Malachoswki, 2. R Harting, 3. Milanov

Olympics: Men's Long Jump Preview

Men’s Long Jump

Qualifying 8:20 PM Friday, August 12^th

Final 7:50 PM Saturday, August 13^th

World Record: Mike Powell (USA) 8.95m, 1991

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Dwight Phillips (USA) 8.74m, 2007

Olympic Record: Bob Beamon 8.90m, 1968

A Standard: 8.15m

2012 Olympic Medalists

Greg Rutherford (Great Britain) 8.31, Mitchell Watt (Australia) 8.16, Will Claye (USA) 8.12

2015 World Championship Medalists

Greg Rutherford (Great Britain) 8.41, Fabrice Lapierre (Australia) 8.24, Jianan Wang (China) 8.18

2016 World Leaders

Jarrion Lawson (USA) 8.58, Marquise Goodwin (USA) 8.45, Marquis Denedy (USA) 8.42, [Michel Torneus (Sweden) 8.44A]

Team USA

Jeff Henderson, 27 (8.52/8.19), Jarrion Lawson, 22 (8.58/8.58), Marquis Dendy, 23 (8.42/8.42)

Great Britain’s Greg Rutherford is the defending world and Olympic champion for the long jump. He holds a personal best of 8.51 meters from 2014 and, after an 8.31m victory in Rome, has shown flashes of the form that earned him his hardware in the past. He’s certainly the favorite entering this event.

However, the US Long Jump Contingent will be one of the best we have seen in recent years. And it won’t include World #2 Marquise Goodwin or Olympic Bronze Medalist Will Claye. Leading the charge, having won the US Championship’s, is Jeff Henderson. Henderson has a PR of 8.52 in the long from 2015, but he barely cracked the top 10 in Beijing last year. At the US Champs, Henderson clocked a mammoth leap of 8.59 which would have been the world lead if it wasn’t for the wind.

In the same series, Jarrion Lawson clocked an 8.58 which, since it was marked with legal wind, will count on the all-time lists. It was one heck of a leap for the Collegiate who pulled off the 100-200-LJ triple at NCAAs and made the finals in all three events when he returned to Eugene for the Trials. Lawson is currently the world leader (he’s 20 centimeters ahead of his next closest Olympic competitor), but it is worth noting his jump was clocked in windy conditions.

The same is true for Marquis Dendy, the third US squad member. The recent Florida grad jumped his PR of 8.42 in the trials as well. However, he jumped an 8.39 in 2015 when he made his first world squad and also is the reigning indoor world champ after jumping 8.26 in Portland this past March.

This is a super talented bunch for the USA and, potentially, we could have multiple medalists on the award stand in Rio. But someone is going to have come up clutch. In last Olympics, you could medal with jumps under 8.20 meters. The same is true for last year’s world championship meet. In 2016 there have already been 17 athletes over this distance. So there are plenty of options for the medal stand. It will come down to who can perform under the bright lights.

Among the chief contenders will be Rushwal Samaai from South Africa (23 years old, 8.38 season best), Fabrice Lapierre of Australia (8.31 this May, 8.40 PR from 2010, 2015 silver medalist) and Michael Torneus of Sweden (jumped 8.44 at Altitude, but hasn’t been above 8.22 at any season prior to this).

I might be biased, but I’m thinking this will be the year for a breakthrough from the USA in the Long Jump. This used to be one of our country’s greatest events, but we really struggled in 2015. I’m banking on Henderson leading the charge with vengeance on his mind. Lawson is a huge talent, but I’m a little skeptical of those Hayward marks from the trails. Even still, 8.58 is flying so anything in that ball park would put him gold medal range. But still, I give the nod to the slightly more proven and experienced Dendy.

But I still think Rutherford gets another gold. He’s been clutch in the championships and so I’ll put my chips in with him.

1.      Rutherford, 2. Henderson, 3. Dendy

Olympics: Women's Shot Put Preview

Women’s Shot Put

Qualifying 9:05 AM Friday, August 12^th

Final 9:00 PM Friday, August 12^th

World Record: Natalya Lisovskaya (Russia) 22.63m, 1987

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Nadezhda Ostapchuk (Belarus) 21.58m, 2012

Olympic Record: Ilona Slupianek (East Germany) 22.41m, 1980

A Standard: 17.75m

2012 Olympic Medalists

Valerie Adams (New Zealand) 20.70, Evgeniia Kolodko (Russia) 20.48, Lijiao Gong (China) 20.22

2015 World Championship Medalists

Christina Schwanitz (Germany) 20.37, Lijiao Gong (China) 20.30, Michelle Carter (USA) 19.76

2016 World Leaders

Lijiao Gong (China) 20.43, Valerie Adams (New Zealand) 20.19, Christina Schwanitz (Germany) 20.17

Team USA

Michelle Carter, 30 (20.24/19.59) Raven Saunders, 20 (19.33/19.33), Felisha Johnson, 27 (19.26/19.26)

In the first field event final of the Games, we will witness one of the most exciting gold medal battles of the meet. The favorite is two time defending Olympic Champion Valerie Adams (one of Steven’s sister) of New Zealand who has been one of the clutchest throwers in the world. She won global titles in 07, 08, 09, 11, 12 and 13. Her PR is 21.24 from 2011. However, after a year out of competition, other challengers have emerged confident and ready to challenge.

The world leader is China’s Lijiao Gong who threw a PR of 20.43 this May. She has been so close to a global title over the past 8 seasons, but has yet to pull through for victory. Last season, on home turf, she grabbed 2^nd in the world. That title was won by Germany’s Christina Schwanitz, currently ranked 3^rd in the world with 4 of the top 7 throws overall. She holds a PR of 20.77 from 2015 and won’t go quietly against the defending Olympic champ Adams.

The Wildcard to break up the medals is last year’s bronze medalist Michelle Carter of the United States. Indoors, she defeated some of the top throwers in the world and uncorked a massive 20.21 for the gold on home soil. However, this outdoors she has struggled to break the 20 meter mark. The USA’s top thrower by distance is actually Tia Brooks who failed to qualify for the Rio squad at the Trials. I’m hoping Carter’s indoor breakthrough was a sign of potential to surprise in Brazil, however, she will need to throw significantly better than she has so far this spring. It's worth noting that, according to the IAAF preview, no US woman has medaled in the shot put in 56 years.

Felisha Johnson and Raven Saunders are #8 and #7 so far in 2016 and have each thrown personal bests this season. Saunders is just 20 years old with a ton of potential for the future in her first year as a global contender. However, neither of their bests (low 19s) put them quite in medal position. That being said, both have a great shot at making the final and perhaps sneaking in and getting 6 throws a piece to reset those PRs. Saunders will be especially fun to watch after her performance to end her collegiate season. How can she handle the extra weeks of training and re-peaking?

Ultimately, I’m going with Adams to get the win. I just like her resume of clutch performances. However, I think Gong may have the best shot at the upset. She seems to be ascending at the right time and is still hungry for that first gold. Fingers crossed that Carter can find her way onto the medal stand.

1.      Adams, 2. Schwartz, 3. Gong

Olympics: Men's 10,000m Preview

Men’s 10,000m

Final 8:25 PM Saturday, August 13^th

World Record: Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) 26:17.53, 2005

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) 26:25.97, 2008

Olympic Record: Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) 27:01.17, 2008

A Standard: 28:00.00

2012 Olympic Medalists

Mo Farah (Great Britian) 27:30.42, Galen Rupp (USA) 27:30.90, Tariku Bekele (Ethiopia) 27:31.43

2015 World Championship Medalists

Mo Farah (Great Britian) 27:01.13, Geoffrey Kamworor (Kenya) 27:01.76, Paul Tanui (Kenya) 27:02.83

2016 World Leaders

Yigrem Demelash (Ethiopia) 26:51.11, Mo Farah (Great Britain) 26:53.71, William Malel Sitonik (Kenya) 26:54.66

Team USA

Galen Rupp, 30 (26:44.36/27:55.04), Shadrack Kipchirchir, 27 (27:36.79/27:58.91), Leonard Korir, 29 (27:29.40/27:58.65)

In 2011, Mo Farah, in his first year as a world-beater, made a big move on the final lap of the 2011 World Championship 10k. But he made his move from a bit too far out and it cost him: Ethiopia’s Ibrahim Jelian ran him down in the final straight for an upset gold. Since that moment, Farah has won every single global title he has pursued on the track. For those keeping score, that’s a fantastic seven gold medals. And counting. The Brit will chase number eight and nine in Rio and, in most people’s opinion, he will be the heavy favorite to add the hardware to his trophy case.

The quest for history starts in the 10,000, where Farah is currently ranked #2 in the world after his 26:53 victory earlier this year in Eugene. Mo also won the 10,000 in Oregon the year before, running 26:50, the fastest time of the Olympic qualifying window. With that strength, you have to hope to outkick him, right? Wrong. Mo’s run 3:28 (a top 10 performer in history) for 1500m and earlier this year finished right alongside reigning 1500 world champ Asbel Kiprop in Monaco in the same event. It’s his third straight season with a top finish in the most competitive 1500 on the circuit.

So he’s unbeatable, right? Well, not exactly. While it’s going to be a tall order to defeat Mo, his most formidable challenger, Geoffrey Kamworor of Kenya, has done it before. At the World Half Marathon Championships Kamworor and teammate Brendan Muchiri hammered the pace early and ran away from Mo, who was never able to catch up. Geoffrey backed up that performance with a 12:59 clocking in the 5,000 this season, a personal best. A year ago, the Kenyan team tried to hammer the pace from the gun in the hopes of breaking Mo’s infamous finish and, although Kamworor came close, even a concerted effort at 27 minute pace wasn’t quite enough. We will see if the Kenyan squad is bold enough to go for it again (looks like they may send the same trio). Even if the strategy wasn’t enough to defeat Farah, it still helped the Kenyan’s finish 2-3-4 in China last summer (the 3-4 spots belonged to Paul Tanui and Brendan Muchiri who will likely be the other Kenyans competing in Rio). They were shut out of the medals at the last Olympics.

Speaking of which, perennial 10,000m powerhouse Ethiopia was shut out of the medals in China last year, an unprecedented moment for this team in perhaps their signature event. The Africa nation will look to anoint it’s next superstar in the 25 lapper in Rio as they are projected to send a team of completely unknown youngsters: Yigrem Demelash, Abadi Hadis and Tamirat Tola. 2011 World Champ Ibrahim Jelian is the alternate. Demelash is 22 and Tola turns 25 two days before the 10k final. Farah is 33. But Demelash ran the world lead for 2016 this season, defeating the deepest field in the world at Hengelo and running 26:51. Tola and Hadise are also sub 27 runners on the season (Tola has done it twice).

Of course we would be remiss if we failed to mention the United States top runner as a medal contender for this race in Rio. Galen Rupp, the silver medalist in London, will be hoping for a second career global medal after finishing in the top 5 of the last three global championships in the 10,000. The American Record holder in this event, Galen ran 26:44 in 2014 (fastest time in the world since 2011) has incredible strength in the distance. His kick, however, is a little suspect (see the US Olympic Trials 5k for evidence) since he has decided to switch his focus towards the Marathon in 2016. A strength based race, similar to what we saw a year ago, will definitely benefit Galen and perhaps a long surge from home with 800 and or even 1600 would be the best strategy for a second straight Olympic medal.

Beyond Galen, the US will have a few lesser known distance stand outs from the US Army: Shadrack Kipchirchir and Leonard Korir. Kipchirchir (OK State graduate) has made the last two US teams at 10k and has run in the mid 27s, but his kick isn’t among the elite internationally (you may remember him being bested by Rupp and Ches in the past) and his strength isn’t quite world class. Korir has been Shadrack’s training and racing partner, running stride for stride in their Olympic A Standard race. He ran sub 13:20 back in his Iona days, but he hasn’t quite been in the same form until this year. Like Shadrack, he’s not quite on the level as the top Kenyan’s and Ethiopians and, unlike Shadrack, this is his first time representing the US on the global stage. Both guys are huge long shots for the medal stand, but hopefully they can hang tough in the race, run gutsy and crack the top 10 finishers. They handled the hot, humid conditions of Eugene better than most which may be a positive sign for Rio.

When you throw all this info together, I feel pretty comfortable picking Mo Farah for the victory. My bet is Kamworor for 2^nd as well given the roll he has been on the past two seasons since breaking out onto the scene as a global track star. Demelash really intrigues me as a sleeper. He won the Ethiopian trials by six seconds en route to the world lead and shows serious upside for a 22 year old. If anyone is going to pull the upset, I think it might be him. Of course there’s also the chance he fades from the pace as inexperienced senior. I’ll go safe with Tanui of Kenya, but if you’re feeling bold keep an eye out for the young Ethiopian.

1.      Farah, 2. Kamworor, 3. Tanui

Olympics: Women's 10,000m Preview

Women’s 10,000m

Final 10:10 AM Friday, August 12^th

By the Numbers:

World Record: Wang Junxia (China) 29:31.78, 1993

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Meselech Melkamu (Ethiopia) 29:53.80, 2009

Olympic Record: Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) 29:54.66, 2008

A Standard: 32:15.00

2012 Olympic Medalists

Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) 30:20.75, Sally Kipyego (Kenya) 30:26.37, Vivian Cheruiyot (Kenya) 30:30.44

2015 World Championship Medalists

Vivian Cheruiyot (Kenya) 31:41.31, Gelete Burka (Ethiopia) 31:41.77, Emily Infeld (USA) 31:43.49

2016 World Leaders

Almaz Ayana (Ethiopia) 30:07.00, Alice Aprot Nawowuna (Kenya) 30:26.94, Gelete Burka (Ethiopia) 30:28.47

Team USA

Molly Huddle, 31 (30:47.59/31:41.62), Emily Infeld, 26 (31:38.71/31:46.09), Marielle Hall, 24 (31:37.45/31:37.45)

The first Athletics final of the Olympics will be the Women’s 10,000m on Friday morning and, in all likelihood, it will set the stage for an exciting games on the oval. For starters, you have defending Olympic Champion and Olympic record holder Tirunesh Dibaba of Ethiopia going for a historic third consecutive Olympic gold. Dibaba is the world record holder at 5,000m in addition to her #2 all-time status in the 10k, but she is getting older (she’s 31, but has a lot of miles on her legs) and she missed a solid chunk of time in 2015 after giving birth in March to her first child.

In that time, Ethiopia has had new Athletics heroes rising to fame. And no, I’m not just talking about Tirunesh’s sister, 1500m world record holder Genezebe Dibaba. I’m talking about 24 year old Almaz Ayana. This season, Ayana has nearly broke Tirunesh’s world record in the 5,000 (she ran 14:12 vs. Dibaba’s 14:11) and also clocked a world leading 30:07 in her 10k debut. In that race she won by 21 seconds. And it the field was no joke. Second place was Gelete Burka, the defending World silver medalist at 10,000, and, perhaps more impressively, third was the aforementioned Tirunesh Dibaba (her first loss at 10k ever).

As is the case in many of the long distance events, the stacked Ethiopian trio will be best rivaled by Kenya’s threesome. Vivian Cheruiyot, the defending world champion from Beijing, will look to defend her global crown. She won in a kicker’s battle last year in a field that did not include Ayana and Dibaba. Vivivan ran 14:35 in Eugene earlier this year, finishing third in the Prefontaine Classic. She will be joined by Alice Aprot Nawowuna, currently #2 in the world at this distance with a 30:26, and Betsy Saina. Saina trains with the Bowerman Track Club ladies of the US (she went to college here in the states) and will have at least one familiar face in the pack, BTC’s Emily Infeld.  She ran 14:44 for 5,000 already this spring.

Which brings us to Team USA. The only US distance medalist in Beijing a year ago came in the 10,000m. But it wasn’t the runner you would have expected. Emily Infeld, competing in her first global championship, sprinted by countrywoman Molly Huddle in the race’s closing stages after Huddle began to celebrate her medal a couple steps too early.

Huddle was having a monstrous season on the track and the roads. She is the American Record Holder at 5,000m and has acquitted herself well on the international scene at Diamond League meets. With oppressive humidity slowing the pace, it opened the door for Huddle to surprise, but, ironically, she was the one to get surprised. Infeld, who had struggled with injuries most of her career, ran within 5 seconds of her PR and capitalized on what may have been a once in a lifetime opportunity. There’s no guarantees things will be slow this time around (the London Games took a time of 30:30 to get on the podium, a mark none of our US women have ever eclipsed). However, Huddle will enter this race with a vengeance after her near miss last year and she looked as sharp as ever at the US Olympic Trials, winning both the 5k and the 10k while leading from the front. Meanwhile, Infeld will enter with the extra experience and confidence that comes with her Bronze medal. She looked quite fit at the US championships in her own right, despite the fact that she has, once again, been facing nagging injuries. Both women will hopefully contend for the medals, but if things are anywhere near as fast as London (and Ayana and Dibaba probably won’t mess around with the pace), Emily is going to need to cut serious time off her 31:38 PB to be a factor. Huddle is probably our best bet at the medal stand.

The third member of the squad is Texas grad Marielle Hall. After excelling at 5,000m in her early career, the 24 year old jumped up in distance in 2016 and posted a strong 31:37 and pulled away late in Eugene to clinch her first Olympic bid. Hall has great speed, which she showcased in her 15:06 indoor 5k this winter and trains with 800 specialist Ajee Wilson, so she could potentially make some moves in the latter stages of a slower paced 10,000 (perhaps this year’s Infeld?). But fans shouldn’t put any crazy expectations on Hall for this one. Hopefully she can contend for a top 10 spot in the field and gain valuable experience for her next few years where she will hopefully continue to progress into a global contender.

Here’s my best bet for a prediction. I think the pace is honest which makes it so only a few runners can potentially win. It’s hard for me to imagine a circumstance where Ayana doesn’t come out with gold, although it’s going to be interesting to see how she handles the pressure in just her second ever 10k. Dibaba has the pedigree and will looking for history so you can’t count her out on this big stage, but ultimately, I think her time may be up as global champ.

1.      Ayana, 2. Dibaba, 3. Cheruiyot