Olympics: Women's 10,000m Preview

Women’s 10,000m

Final 10:10 AM Friday, August 12^th

By the Numbers:

World Record: Wang Junxia (China) 29:31.78, 1993

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Meselech Melkamu (Ethiopia) 29:53.80, 2009

Olympic Record: Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) 29:54.66, 2008

A Standard: 32:15.00

2012 Olympic Medalists

Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) 30:20.75, Sally Kipyego (Kenya) 30:26.37, Vivian Cheruiyot (Kenya) 30:30.44

2015 World Championship Medalists

Vivian Cheruiyot (Kenya) 31:41.31, Gelete Burka (Ethiopia) 31:41.77, Emily Infeld (USA) 31:43.49

2016 World Leaders

Almaz Ayana (Ethiopia) 30:07.00, Alice Aprot Nawowuna (Kenya) 30:26.94, Gelete Burka (Ethiopia) 30:28.47

Team USA

Molly Huddle, 31 (30:47.59/31:41.62), Emily Infeld, 26 (31:38.71/31:46.09), Marielle Hall, 24 (31:37.45/31:37.45)

The first Athletics final of the Olympics will be the Women’s 10,000m on Friday morning and, in all likelihood, it will set the stage for an exciting games on the oval. For starters, you have defending Olympic Champion and Olympic record holder Tirunesh Dibaba of Ethiopia going for a historic third consecutive Olympic gold. Dibaba is the world record holder at 5,000m in addition to her #2 all-time status in the 10k, but she is getting older (she’s 31, but has a lot of miles on her legs) and she missed a solid chunk of time in 2015 after giving birth in March to her first child.

In that time, Ethiopia has had new Athletics heroes rising to fame. And no, I’m not just talking about Tirunesh’s sister, 1500m world record holder Genezebe Dibaba. I’m talking about 24 year old Almaz Ayana. This season, Ayana has nearly broke Tirunesh’s world record in the 5,000 (she ran 14:12 vs. Dibaba’s 14:11) and also clocked a world leading 30:07 in her 10k debut. In that race she won by 21 seconds. And it the field was no joke. Second place was Gelete Burka, the defending World silver medalist at 10,000, and, perhaps more impressively, third was the aforementioned Tirunesh Dibaba (her first loss at 10k ever).

As is the case in many of the long distance events, the stacked Ethiopian trio will be best rivaled by Kenya’s threesome. Vivian Cheruiyot, the defending world champion from Beijing, will look to defend her global crown. She won in a kicker’s battle last year in a field that did not include Ayana and Dibaba. Vivivan ran 14:35 in Eugene earlier this year, finishing third in the Prefontaine Classic. She will be joined by Alice Aprot Nawowuna, currently #2 in the world at this distance with a 30:26, and Betsy Saina. Saina trains with the Bowerman Track Club ladies of the US (she went to college here in the states) and will have at least one familiar face in the pack, BTC’s Emily Infeld.  She ran 14:44 for 5,000 already this spring.

Which brings us to Team USA. The only US distance medalist in Beijing a year ago came in the 10,000m. But it wasn’t the runner you would have expected. Emily Infeld, competing in her first global championship, sprinted by countrywoman Molly Huddle in the race’s closing stages after Huddle began to celebrate her medal a couple steps too early.

Huddle was having a monstrous season on the track and the roads. She is the American Record Holder at 5,000m and has acquitted herself well on the international scene at Diamond League meets. With oppressive humidity slowing the pace, it opened the door for Huddle to surprise, but, ironically, she was the one to get surprised. Infeld, who had struggled with injuries most of her career, ran within 5 seconds of her PR and capitalized on what may have been a once in a lifetime opportunity. There’s no guarantees things will be slow this time around (the London Games took a time of 30:30 to get on the podium, a mark none of our US women have ever eclipsed). However, Huddle will enter this race with a vengeance after her near miss last year and she looked as sharp as ever at the US Olympic Trials, winning both the 5k and the 10k while leading from the front. Meanwhile, Infeld will enter with the extra experience and confidence that comes with her Bronze medal. She looked quite fit at the US championships in her own right, despite the fact that she has, once again, been facing nagging injuries. Both women will hopefully contend for the medals, but if things are anywhere near as fast as London (and Ayana and Dibaba probably won’t mess around with the pace), Emily is going to need to cut serious time off her 31:38 PB to be a factor. Huddle is probably our best bet at the medal stand.

The third member of the squad is Texas grad Marielle Hall. After excelling at 5,000m in her early career, the 24 year old jumped up in distance in 2016 and posted a strong 31:37 and pulled away late in Eugene to clinch her first Olympic bid. Hall has great speed, which she showcased in her 15:06 indoor 5k this winter and trains with 800 specialist Ajee Wilson, so she could potentially make some moves in the latter stages of a slower paced 10,000 (perhaps this year’s Infeld?). But fans shouldn’t put any crazy expectations on Hall for this one. Hopefully she can contend for a top 10 spot in the field and gain valuable experience for her next few years where she will hopefully continue to progress into a global contender.

Here’s my best bet for a prediction. I think the pace is honest which makes it so only a few runners can potentially win. It’s hard for me to imagine a circumstance where Ayana doesn’t come out with gold, although it’s going to be interesting to see how she handles the pressure in just her second ever 10k. Dibaba has the pedigree and will looking for history so you can’t count her out on this big stage, but ultimately, I think her time may be up as global champ.

1.      Ayana, 2. Dibaba, 3. Cheruiyot