Olympics: Men's 10,000m Preview

Men’s 10,000m

Final 8:25 PM Saturday, August 13^th

World Record: Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) 26:17.53, 2005

Best Mark Past 10 Years: Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) 26:25.97, 2008

Olympic Record: Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) 27:01.17, 2008

A Standard: 28:00.00

2012 Olympic Medalists

Mo Farah (Great Britian) 27:30.42, Galen Rupp (USA) 27:30.90, Tariku Bekele (Ethiopia) 27:31.43

2015 World Championship Medalists

Mo Farah (Great Britian) 27:01.13, Geoffrey Kamworor (Kenya) 27:01.76, Paul Tanui (Kenya) 27:02.83

2016 World Leaders

Yigrem Demelash (Ethiopia) 26:51.11, Mo Farah (Great Britain) 26:53.71, William Malel Sitonik (Kenya) 26:54.66

Team USA

Galen Rupp, 30 (26:44.36/27:55.04), Shadrack Kipchirchir, 27 (27:36.79/27:58.91), Leonard Korir, 29 (27:29.40/27:58.65)

In 2011, Mo Farah, in his first year as a world-beater, made a big move on the final lap of the 2011 World Championship 10k. But he made his move from a bit too far out and it cost him: Ethiopia’s Ibrahim Jelian ran him down in the final straight for an upset gold. Since that moment, Farah has won every single global title he has pursued on the track. For those keeping score, that’s a fantastic seven gold medals. And counting. The Brit will chase number eight and nine in Rio and, in most people’s opinion, he will be the heavy favorite to add the hardware to his trophy case.

The quest for history starts in the 10,000, where Farah is currently ranked #2 in the world after his 26:53 victory earlier this year in Eugene. Mo also won the 10,000 in Oregon the year before, running 26:50, the fastest time of the Olympic qualifying window. With that strength, you have to hope to outkick him, right? Wrong. Mo’s run 3:28 (a top 10 performer in history) for 1500m and earlier this year finished right alongside reigning 1500 world champ Asbel Kiprop in Monaco in the same event. It’s his third straight season with a top finish in the most competitive 1500 on the circuit.

So he’s unbeatable, right? Well, not exactly. While it’s going to be a tall order to defeat Mo, his most formidable challenger, Geoffrey Kamworor of Kenya, has done it before. At the World Half Marathon Championships Kamworor and teammate Brendan Muchiri hammered the pace early and ran away from Mo, who was never able to catch up. Geoffrey backed up that performance with a 12:59 clocking in the 5,000 this season, a personal best. A year ago, the Kenyan team tried to hammer the pace from the gun in the hopes of breaking Mo’s infamous finish and, although Kamworor came close, even a concerted effort at 27 minute pace wasn’t quite enough. We will see if the Kenyan squad is bold enough to go for it again (looks like they may send the same trio). Even if the strategy wasn’t enough to defeat Farah, it still helped the Kenyan’s finish 2-3-4 in China last summer (the 3-4 spots belonged to Paul Tanui and Brendan Muchiri who will likely be the other Kenyans competing in Rio). They were shut out of the medals at the last Olympics.

Speaking of which, perennial 10,000m powerhouse Ethiopia was shut out of the medals in China last year, an unprecedented moment for this team in perhaps their signature event. The Africa nation will look to anoint it’s next superstar in the 25 lapper in Rio as they are projected to send a team of completely unknown youngsters: Yigrem Demelash, Abadi Hadis and Tamirat Tola. 2011 World Champ Ibrahim Jelian is the alternate. Demelash is 22 and Tola turns 25 two days before the 10k final. Farah is 33. But Demelash ran the world lead for 2016 this season, defeating the deepest field in the world at Hengelo and running 26:51. Tola and Hadise are also sub 27 runners on the season (Tola has done it twice).

Of course we would be remiss if we failed to mention the United States top runner as a medal contender for this race in Rio. Galen Rupp, the silver medalist in London, will be hoping for a second career global medal after finishing in the top 5 of the last three global championships in the 10,000. The American Record holder in this event, Galen ran 26:44 in 2014 (fastest time in the world since 2011) has incredible strength in the distance. His kick, however, is a little suspect (see the US Olympic Trials 5k for evidence) since he has decided to switch his focus towards the Marathon in 2016. A strength based race, similar to what we saw a year ago, will definitely benefit Galen and perhaps a long surge from home with 800 and or even 1600 would be the best strategy for a second straight Olympic medal.

Beyond Galen, the US will have a few lesser known distance stand outs from the US Army: Shadrack Kipchirchir and Leonard Korir. Kipchirchir (OK State graduate) has made the last two US teams at 10k and has run in the mid 27s, but his kick isn’t among the elite internationally (you may remember him being bested by Rupp and Ches in the past) and his strength isn’t quite world class. Korir has been Shadrack’s training and racing partner, running stride for stride in their Olympic A Standard race. He ran sub 13:20 back in his Iona days, but he hasn’t quite been in the same form until this year. Like Shadrack, he’s not quite on the level as the top Kenyan’s and Ethiopians and, unlike Shadrack, this is his first time representing the US on the global stage. Both guys are huge long shots for the medal stand, but hopefully they can hang tough in the race, run gutsy and crack the top 10 finishers. They handled the hot, humid conditions of Eugene better than most which may be a positive sign for Rio.

When you throw all this info together, I feel pretty comfortable picking Mo Farah for the victory. My bet is Kamworor for 2^nd as well given the roll he has been on the past two seasons since breaking out onto the scene as a global track star. Demelash really intrigues me as a sleeper. He won the Ethiopian trials by six seconds en route to the world lead and shows serious upside for a 22 year old. If anyone is going to pull the upset, I think it might be him. Of course there’s also the chance he fades from the pace as inexperienced senior. I’ll go safe with Tanui of Kenya, but if you’re feeling bold keep an eye out for the young Ethiopian.

1.      Farah, 2. Kamworor, 3. Tanui