Olympics: Men's 800m Preview

Men’s 800m

Heats 9:10 AM, Friday, August 12^th

Semi-Finals 9:05 PM Saturday, August 13^th

Finals 9:25 PM Monday, August 15^th

World Record: David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:40.91, 2012

Best Mark Past 10 Years: David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:40.91, 2012

Olympic Record: David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:40.91, 2012

A Standard: 1:46.00

2012 Olympic Medalists

David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:40.91, Nijel Amos (Botswana) 1:41.73, Tim Kitum (Kenya) 1:42.53

2015 World Championship Medalists

David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:45.84, Adam Kszczot (Poland) 1:46.08, Amel Tuka (Bosnia) 1:46.30

2016 World Leaders

David Rudisha (Kenya) 1:43.35, Donovan Brazier (USA) 1:43.55, Nicholas Kiplangat Kipkoech (Kenya) 1:43.85, [Nicholas Kiplangat Kipkoech (Kenya) 1:43.37A, Jonathan Kiprotich Kitlit (Kenya) 1:43.48A, Alfred Kipketer (Kenya) 1:43.73A]

Team USA

Clayton Murphy, 21 (1:44.76/1:44.76), Boris Berian, 23 (1:43.34/1:44.20), Charles Jock, 26 (1:44.67/1:45.48)

In the 2012 Olympics, the world witnessed perhaps the greatest 800m race in the history of the world. Each of the 8 finalists race a record for the place within the race while the world and world junior records were awarded to the top two finishers. Leading the race wire to wire and finishing with the first ever sub 1:41 800m was David Rudisha of Kenya. That mark still stands (and no one has been close quite frankly) and David holds 6 of the 8 fastest times in world history. However, Rudisha has looked much more human since his records setting run, with just one trip into the 1:42s (a 1:42.98 in 2014) and plenty of losses, even against his countrymen at the Kenyan trials.

As Rudisha fell, a few newcomers rose to prominence. First was Botswana’s Nigel Amos. He ran 1:41 chasing Dave in 2012 and then emerged as the best 800 runner in the world when he returned to health in 2014. However, after a terrific regular season in 2015, Amos was barely run out of the finals at the Beijing championships in a tactical semi-final. Then there was Amel Tuka of Bosnia who surprised everyone dropping from an also ran 1:46 type all the way to a 1:42 man who won the Monaco 800 last year. He carried that momentum and his brilliant finishing kick to a bronze medal at last year’s world championships. Pierre Bosse and Ferguson Rotich have also broken into the 1:42s since the last Olympic Games and have each made world championship finals.

However, despite the increase in challengers, when Rudisha stepped onto the track in Beijing to reclaim his title, no one could stop him. He transformed his strategy from front running pace pusher, to master tactican, winding up slowly from the front and winning a slow final in a brilliant strategic display. His winning time was just 1:45.84, quite the contrast with his 1:40.91 from 3 years earlier. That strategy helped Poland’s excellent finisher Adam Kszczot move through for the silver.

So the question becomes, which strategy will we see from Rudisha in 2016? He has run the world lead of 1:43.3 (with a slight negative split), but he’s also been bested in Stockholm (June) and Shanghai (May) plus the Kenyan Trials. Honestly, I’ve got no clue what he’s thinking. If I had to guess, I’d bet on him using the same strategy that gave him success in Beijing. In some ways it’s riskier, but leading wire to wire takes a lot of energy, especially when you aren’t easily the best in the world like Rudy was in 2012.

Representing each of the two 800 meter strategies for the United States are Clayton Murphy (the kicker) and Boris Berian (the front-runner). Berian exploded onto the scene a year ago, dipping into the 1:43s at New York’s DL and then following it with a 1:43.3 in Monaco. In the past, Berian has struggled with rounds, but we saw his true talent on display in the World Indoor Championships when he front ran his way to Gold. He’s still young and is vulnerable in the three round set up of global championships, but his runs at the US Olympic Trials were encouraging.

On the flip side, Clayton Murphy has used his phenomenal kick to beat Berian in their last two meetings, despite the fact that he didn’t have a PR in the 1:44s until the finals at USAs. He also toppled Matt Centrowitz at 1,000m recently in Houston and won the NCAA title in the 1500 with a 3:36 (perhaps his best event long term). Murphy ran at the world championships a year ago, thanks to the Symmonds controversy, and gained some valuable experience in the 800 (he made it to the semis, but was quite far from the finals). In terms of confidence and performance, Murphy is on an entirely different plane than he was a year ago, but will he be able to overcome his relatively modest personal best in a field of titans?

The final US team member is Charles Jock, who surprised many when he finished 3^rd at the US Trials. Jock has struggled mightily since making the team, but that isn’t a massive concern given the excitement and high he likely experienced after his breakthrough in Eugene. That being said, he is going to need some good fortunate to have any chance at the finals. Making the Semis and proving he belongs on this US team with a strong series of two-lappers.

The brutal truth is the 800 at major championships is incredibly unpredictable and fickle event. After the preliminary round, competitors participate in a brutal semifinal where the field is cut from 24 to 8 (top 2 in each of the three heats and next two fastest times). It will undoubtedly knock out at least one of the favorites and it will test every single athlete in the field. You need to have strength to get through the rounds, tactics to navigate the difficult structure and, of course, speed to run with the fastest in the world.

The other complicating factor is the presence of Ayanleh Souleiman (1:42/3:29) and Taoufik Makhloufi (1500m gold medalist, 1:43) in the 800. They are scheduled to run the 8 and the 15 with the 15 rounds not starting up til after the 800 is complete. It’s a doable double, but it will definitely hurt their medal chances in the 15 (see Souleiman’s finish in 2013 for example). Makloufi needed an “injury” to help him get out of the 800 rounds in London so it’s possible that these guys back out of the 800 before race day. But if they stay in the field, they are undoubtedly medal contenders with the strength to survive the rounds.

I think if the two US runners can make the finals, anything can happen, but I’m not expecting a medal here. I think it’s two big of an ask. I honestly think Berian has a better shot at getting to the podium, but Murphy has a better shot at making the final. If we can send to Americans to the Olympic final for the second straight games, I’d be amped.

To me, it’s hard to imagine Rudisha losing. He definitely could, but the guy has an impeccable championship record and has proven he can win with a variety of different styles. I’ve been a big fan of Kszscot for a while (I picked him for the medal stand a year ago) and I love his finishing ability. He can sometimes let himself get boxed in, but I’d pick him for the medal stand as well. Outside of that, I’m expecting some randomness to prevail. The Kenyans, Ferugson Rotich and Alfred Kipketer, both have excellent finishes and Kipketer has grown a lot over the past two seasons on the senior ranks. On the flip side, if it’s a fast enough race, Pierre Bosse of France might be the pick for the medal stand. He has run some phenomenal races on the circuit this year and holds a 1:42 PB from Monaco 2014.

You have Amos and Tuka lurking as sleepers, but I haven’t seen much from either of them recently. And what I haven seen hasn’t been particularly encouraging. The same goes for 2013 world champ Mo Aman of Ethiopia. But, to be fair, these guys are world class talents so don’t be surprised if they end up in the final.

1.      Rudisha, 2. Kscszot, 3. Kipketer